Braves Prospects Stock Watch: Nacho Alvarez; Drake Baldwin break out in Triple-A (2024)

With the Atlanta Braves top three prospects not playing in the minor leagues very much in June, you might assume it was a boring month. It was far from it, however, as the system came alive at every level especially as a slow first two months gave way to a huge June for the hitters. Pitchers are also starting to get healthy, with Blake Burkhalter being impressive among the crew of arms.

Arrow Up

Nacho Alvarez - We all knew the two guys that were going to be leading this list, and Nacho Alvarez has been a huge surprise since his promotion to Gwinnett. We all knew Alvarez could hit at a high level, but four home runs in 16 Triple-A games was not on my bingo card. There has been quite a bit of batted ball luck involved for Nacho, but even if you exclude that from the calculations he has far exceeded expectations. Alvarez has made necessary swing changes to unlock his pull side power and his zone recognition has translated well to Triple-A. He’s not ready for Atlanta yet, but he’s clearly put his stamp on the system and is now going to push for a job in 2025.

Drake Baldwin - Baldwin had point blank the most impressive month I’ve seen out of a position player prospect since Michael Harris II got promoted to Atlanta. Not just from a statistical perspective, where he had a 15% walk rate, 16% strikeout rate, and 142 wRC+ over his past 21 games. Baldwin did everything right, and every now and then you see it all click for a player and that’s what we’ve seen from him. He may have made himself my top position player prospect for the system, and I think he deserves back end top 100 recognition. He makes contact at a high level, hits the ball as hard as anyone (93.8 mph average exit velocity), and has turned into a reliable defensive catcher. The Braves may end up trading him but I hope they don’t.

Lucas Braun - I’ve been singing the praises of Lucas Braun for awhile and he finally had the type of month that is going to get him attention from those beyond the die hard prospect guys. Braun had 36 strikeouts, two walks, and a 2.22 FIP in four starts last month. He showed off everything you could want from a pitcher, and he has probably placed himself in position to be the next pitching prospect the Braves call up among those who haven’t gotten a major league call up yet. Braun will spend some time in Double-A, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him finish out in Triple-A or even get a surprise call to Atlanta if someone gets hurt. He should be a reliable back end type who has a good enough slider and changeup to feel like he can get you through the order a few times.

Blake Burkhalter - Burkhalter doesn’t have the impressive numbers as the guys on top of this list. He has a 4.41 FIP at High-A and only ten strikeouts in 15 innings. Still, seeing him in the form he is after such a long layoff following Tommy John surgery is impressive. Burkhalter has shown quality movement on all four of his pitches, with his changeup taking the biggest step forward among that group. 2024 won’t be his year, as he’ll still need the time to work back and get a full feel for his body and stuff, but he should get a spring training invite in 2025. Before I saw him I would have projected him into the bullpen but now, assuming he stays healthy, it’s starter stuff and command.

Isaiah Drake - It’s kind of hard not to move up from what Drake did the first few couple of months of the season, but I never could have predicted how quick the switch would flip. On June 6th he struck out twice, giving him a -33 wRC+ and 56.1% strikeout rate in his prior ten games. On June 8th he hit two home runs, and that set off a stretch of games through the rest of the month that saw him post a 112 wRC+ and 20.3% strikeout rate. It was overnight success, as suddenly Drake found everything he needed to make contact and the talent underneath those struggles finally blossomed. Drake isn’t perfect and he is still very raw, but this is one of the most impressive turnarounds I’ve ever seen from a guy.

Arrow Down

Garrett Baumann - This is the weakest arrow down of the season so far, but I wanted to get to five and Baumann was my number five. He had a bad month overall with a 5.62 ERA, but I really don’t think my opinion has shifted that much. There was some bad batted ball luck for Baumann underlying that and he had a 2.76 FIP, with my only concern being the steadily decreasing whiff rates. Baumann just doesn’t have a pitch that misses bats right now, and there hasn’t been much progress in that regard this season. Baumann should spend the rest of the season in Low-A and that’s fine given his age. Seeing a guy with a 15% strikeout rate at Single-A is certainly a concern but the Braves like Baumann so I’m inclined to follow their lead.

Diego Benitez - At this point Benitez is not really a guy I consider a prospect and I’m not sure how long he will be a Brave either. Benitez is talented but I haven’t heard much of anything good about him and he’s gone down to the FCL and been even worse than he was in Augusta. I wouldn’t consider him among the top 50 guys in this system and I don’t see much reason to talk about him moving forward unless there are major changes. He is still young and that’s what’s helping him here — if he can mature the talent is still there and I always want to give teenagers the benefit of the doubt.

Jhancarlos Lara - Lara’s breakout 2023 has given way to a highly inconsistent 2024. My opinions on his stuff haven’t changed and he’s clearly a major league arm. He’s also grown a little bit and is dealing with controlling his body. If he stays healthy I have no reason to believe he won’t bounce back and get on track. However, I have completely come off of believing he could start and his drop will be due to a full reliever projection. Still a clear top 30 guy, and one I like long term, but it’s hard to be a valuable relief “prospect”.

Rolddy Munoz - Munoz has had a couple of decent outings to end the month, but he struggled immensely as he could not miss bats. Munoz’s command had improved somewhat to start the year off, but all of that regressed at once and while it didn’t result in a lot of walks he left his fastball over the plate and got hit hard last month. He’s 24 now and struggling to get outs at Double-A, which is not something you want to see from anyone. He’s also rule 5 eligible this winter and I haven’t seen enough to feel like the Braves will protect him.

Darius Vines - Despite lacking elite stuff Vines has always done a good job of missing bats. Specifically his changeup has been a dominant weapon even up into the major leagues, but that has evaporated recently. Vines had a 9.2% strikeout rate last month, with his strikeout rate dropping in each of his four starts. His swing-and-misses were 8, then 7, then 5, then 6. There has been no real dip in velocity or major shift in pitch usage, he’s just not missing bats and that is a problem.

Non-Top 30 prospects making moves

Robert Gonzalez - I’m sure it’s a bit annoying to see me talk daily about a guy with a 70 wRC+ in Single-A, but Gonzalez is genuinely better than those numbers. The strikeout rates concern me, and the swing concerns me, but the power/speed combination is real and he has made major strides in his zone and pitch recognition. Gonzalez is still a major, major risk. However he shows more and more often what that reward could be and I am willing to be patient with his development.

Tyler Tolve - With a good week last week Tolve now has 13 home runs in 111 career Double-A games, which is solid production for a catcher in that league and home park. Tolve’s improved defensively, and while I’m still not putting him as a top 30 guy there is reason to believe he ends up as a major league player one day. He’s a good enough hitter to start, but he has the power and defense to fit in as a second or third catcher.

John Gil - I haven’t seen much film on Gil, but what I have seen tells me he’s a top 30 guy, and once we get a consistent look at him in full season ball I wouldn’t be surprised to see him jump into the top 15. Every tool has stepped forward in pro ball, and his swing and body are geared to grow into above average power. Gil hits and runs well, and while there is risk with any 18 year old he isn’t as far behind guys like Luis Guanipa as you might think.